- Best‑Case (De‑escalation): ~30% U.S. and major partners negotiate limited roll‑backs within months as domestic pain mounts.
- Middle Ground (Stalemate/Selective Deals): ~50% Tariffs remain in place but are managed bilaterally (e.g., Vietnam, Mexico), avoiding a full global spiral.
- Worst‑Case (Global Escalation → Deep Recession): ~20% Broad coalitional retaliation and non‑tariff barriers trigger a mutual‑defection spiral, leading to recession and lasting supply‑chain realignment.
